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Daily Market Insight: 25 April 2024

25 Apr 2024
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 37.10-37.165 this morning supportive level at 37.00 resistance level at 37.25

·         SET Index: 1,361.1 (+0.27%), 24 Apr 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 5,071.6 (+0.02%), 24 Apr 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.72 (+1.49 bps), 24 Apr 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.65 (+4.00 bps), 24 Apr 2024

 

  • US new home sales rebound to six-month high; rising mortgage rates a concern
  • South Korea Q1 GDP growth smashes estimates, but outlook's uncertain
  • Thailand's $13.5 billion handout aims to boost overall economy, not geared to poor
  • Dollar to remain FX king until US 'economic exceptionalism' cools

 

US new home sales rebound to six-month high; rising mortgage rates a concern Sales of new US single-family homes rebounded in March from February's downwardly revised level, drawing support from a persistent shortage of previously owned houses on the market, but momentum could be curbed by a resurgence in mortgage rates. The report from the Commerce Department also showed the median house price jumped to a seven month-high from February, likely as fewer builders offered price cuts and sales shifted to higher priced homes. Rising prices and mortgage rates could make housing even more unaffordable, especially for first-time buyers. New home sales jumped 8.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 units last month, the highest level since September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. The sales pace for February was revised down to 637,000 units from the previously reported 662,000 units.

 

South Korea Q1 GDP growth smashes estimates, but outlook's uncertain The South Korean economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the first quarter beating all estimates with a pick-up in domestic consumption and robust exports, but the market questioned if the recovery was sustainable. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter was 1.3% higher than the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the sharpest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. That comes after an expansion of 0.6% in the prior quarter and compares with a median forecast of 0.6% in a Reuters survey of economists. Growth in domestic demand was the main factor underpinning the stronger-than-expected GDP, referring to a 0.8% gain in private consumption after a 0.2% increase three months earlier.

 

Thailand's $13.5 billion handout aims to boost overall economy, not geared to poor Thailand's 500 billion baht ($13.53 billion) handout scheme aims to reach the wider population and boost the overall economy through stimulus, a finance official said on Wednesday, responding to central bank recommendations it be targeted towards the poor. The central bank confirmed to Reuters it had sent a letter to cabinet with its recommendations on the digital wallet policy, following a request from the government to provide feedback. The Bank of Thailand had earlier told a press conference it had no objection to stimulus but wanted it to be targeted. The policy received cabinet approval on Tuesday, clearing another hurdle for the government to roll out the stimulus plan, which would give 10,000 baht to each of 50 million Thais to spend in their communities in a six month period.

The digital wallet, rollout of which has been delayed until the end of this year, has been widely criticised by economists and some former central bank governors as fiscally irresponsible.

 

Dollar to remain FX king until US 'economic exceptionalism' cools The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.72, +1.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.70, +3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.65, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.91. Moving in a range of 37.10-37.165 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 37.00-37.25 today. The dollar inched higher Wednesday and will remain the king of the currency playground until US "economic exceptionalism" cools, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to lay out a clearer map for rate cuts. The bump in the road for the dollar, however, could come only after the summer, Macquarie, though cautions that a various factors will need to come together including a further slowing inflation, slowing euro-area growth and easing geopolitical turmoil. There are some signs, however, that other economies on the mend as recent economic data from UK and Euro surprised the upside and helped GBP and the EUR rebound

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC