- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.985-37.03 this morning supportive level at 36.95 resistance level at 37.15
· SET Index: 1,364.3 (+0.23%), 25 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,048.4 (-0.46%), 25 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.75 (+2.53 bps), 25 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.70 (+5.00 bps), 25 Apr 2024
- Imports hold back US economy in first quarter, inflation flares up
- US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall
- Tokyo CPI inflation slides below 2% in April as BOJ meeting approaches
- Dollar sags after mixed US growth and inflation report, except against yen
Imports hold back US economy in first quarter, inflation flares up
The US economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter amid a surge in imports and small build-up of unsold goods at businesses, signs of solid demand that together with an acceleration in inflation reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September. GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP would rise at a 2.4% rate, with estimates ranging from a 1.0% pace to a 3.1% rate. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate in the fourth quarter. The first-quarter growth pace was below what US central bank officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. The cooler-than-expected growth in its snapshot of first-quarter gross domestic product, which also reflected a downshift in government spending, exaggerated the moderation in economic activity.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to still tight labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 20. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims have been bouncing around in a 194,000-225,000 range this year. Companies are hoarding workers after experiencing difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and are enjoying higher profit gains because of strong pricing power. Low layoffs are keeping wage growth elevated, sustaining consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
Tokyo CPI inflation slides below 2% in April as BOJ meeting approaches
Consumer price index inflation in Tokyo grew substantially less than expected in April, sinking below the Bank of Japan’s annual target and somewhat complicating expectations for a more hawkish stance from the central bank. Headline Tokyo CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year in April, government data showed on Friday. The reading was much weaker than expectations that it would remain steady at the 2.6% seen in the prior month. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 1.8% in April, weaker than expectations of 2.2% and slowing substantially from the 2.4% seen in March. A core CPI figure that excludes both fresh food and energy prices fell 1.8% in April from 2.9% in the prior month. The reading- which is closely watched by the BOJ as a gauge of underlying inflation, was now below the central bank’s 2% annual target for the first time since September 2022.
Dollar sags after mixed US growth and inflation report, except against yen
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.75, +2.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.73, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.70, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.12. Moving in a range of 36.985-37.03 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.95-37.15 today. The US dollar fell on Thursday, except against the yen, vacillating after data showed unexpected slowing in economic growth and an unwelcome inflation acceleration, potentially tying the Federal Reserve's hands on a pivot to easier interest rates. While the dollar was hardly shaken against the beleaguered yen, it otherwise only popped briefly after the Commerce Department reported that US gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the January-March period, slower than the 2.4% rate expected by economists polled by Reuters. The report also showed that underlying inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% in the first quarter, eclipsing forecasts for a 3.4% rise.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
