- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.71-36.78 this morning supportive level at 36.65 resistance level at 36.85
· SET Index: 1,369.9 (+0.49%), 3 May 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,180.7 (+1.03%), 6 May 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.75 (-1.05 bps), 3 May 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.49 (-1.00 bps), 6 May 2024
- US unemployment rate remained low
- EU Industrial producer prices down more than 7%
- Thailand April inflation turned positive in 7 months
- Dollar soft on renewed rate cut bets; yen starts week on back foot
US unemployment rate remained low
The Labor Department's report on Friday showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9% from 3.8% in March amid increasing labor supply. Nonetheless, the jobless rate remained below 4% for the 27th straight month. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% after climbing 0.3% in March. Wages increased 3.9% in the 12 months through April. That was the smallest gain in almost three years and first reading below 4.0% since June 2021. It followed a 4.1% rise in March. Slower wage growth is consistent with fewer people job-hopping in search of better compensation and working conditions. Wage growth in a 3.0%-3.5% range is seen as consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Economists also believed a calendar quirk had biased wages lower.
EU Industrial producer prices down more than 7%
According to first estimates from Eurostat, industrial producer prices in March 2024 decreased by 7.8%yoy the euro area and by 7.6%yoy in the EU, while decreased by 0.4% and 0.5% in the Euro area and EU compared with earlier month. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest annual decreases from the same period last year in industrial producer prices were recorded in Slovakia, Ireland, and Belgium. Increases were observed in Luxembourg and Malta. On the other hand, prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 1.3%. In the EU, industrial producer prices decreased by 5.0% for intermediate goods, decreased by 18.6% for energy, increased by 1.8% for capital goods and prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 1.5%.
Thailand April inflation turned positive in 7 months
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.19%yoy in April, after a decline of 0.47%yoy in the previous month. Thailand's headline inflation rate rose for the first time in seven months in April but remained below the central bank's target range of 1-3% for a 12th consecutive month. The core CPI, which excludes raw food and energy prices, rose 0.37%yoy in April, unchanged from the previous month and marking the lowest rate since December 2021. Headline inflation is expected to pick up in May owing to last year's low base for electricity prices from government subsidies and the rising prices of agricultural products on the back of intense heat and drought in farming areas, coupled with a weak Thai baht. The Ministry of Commerce maintained its rate for the year between 0-1%.
Dollar soft on renewed rate cut bets; yen starts week on back foot
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.75, -1.05 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.76, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.49, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.95 Moving in a range of 36.71-36.78 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.65-36.85 today. The Dollar was a touch lower as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates this year, while the yen lurched lower after last week's suspected intervention fueled a wild ride. The Yen last week clocked its strongest weekly gain since early December 2022 following two bouts of suspected intervention from Tokyo to pull the currency away from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar. It gained 3.5% in the week.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
